Average mortgage rates are still historically low, despite trending slightly upwards this week.  Home price appreciation continues to slow down.  The consumer confidence index declined.  Mortgage application submissions dropped off.  New home sales jumped.  The weekly jobless claims report was mixed.  Second quarter’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) revision was unchanged.  Pending home sales activity increased.  Both personal income and consumer spending are up.  The consumer sentiment index improved. 

Mortgage Rates Currently Trending lower

This Week's Potential Volatility

  • Home flippers enter the market as prices and competition heat up.  Read More >>
  • Last week’s mortgage rate increase temporary, rates fall again.  Read More >>
  • Philadelphia Fed President says Fed should hold interest rates.  Read More >>

  • The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index tracks was unchanged from June to July, and up only 2.0% year-over-year.  14 of the 20 cities measured saw increases, led by Phoenix and Las Vegas up 5.8% and 4.7% respectively.

  • The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) house price index appreciated 0.4% month-over-month in July. 

  • In August, the consumer confidence index fell to 125.1, a three-month low. 

  • The weekly mortgage application survey declined a composite 10.1% for the week ending 9/20.   New purchase application submissions declined 3.0% and refinance application submissions dropped 15.0%. 

  • In August, the new home sales report increased 7.1% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 713,000.  Year-over-year sales were up 18%.  New home sales data can be volatile from month to month, but August’s figure is almost a 12-year high. 

  • For the week ending 9/21, initial jobless claims increased to a level of 213,000.  Continuing claims declined to a level of 1.65 million.  The General Motors strike may have influenced this week’s data, jobless claims in Michigan nearly doubled. 

  • GDP is a country’s most comprehensive economic scorecard.  The revision for second quarter showed the economy expanded at a rate of 2%, unchanged from the previous estimate.  Consumer spending was strong, but business investment has declined. 

  • The pending home sales index increased 1.6% month-over-month and 2.5% year-over-year in August. 

  • In August, personal income increased 0.4% month-over-month and consumer spending inched up 0.1% month-over-month.  Core inflation is up 1.8% year-over-year, below the Fed’s targeted 2% rate. 

  • In September, the consumer sentiment index increased to a level of 93.2, a rebound from August’s three-year low. 

This week's important economic reports include:
  • Construction spending
  • MBA applications
  • ADP employment
  • Weekly jobless claims
  • Nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, average hourly earnings

Week of SEPTEMBER 30, 2019